Jeff-
I’ll take a crack at answering your question, and will share my thinking while doing so, dangerous as that might be. The vast majority of Rhyacophila species larvae achieve a maximum body length of between 11 mm and 18 mm, depending on species. As most are univoltine, I would expect them to be in the larval stage for about 10 months. If Spring Creek (in PA) is a “typical” spring creek, it would have much warmer water than prevailing air temperatures in the colder months, and much cooler water than prevailing air temperatures in the summer months. Theoretically, this would tend to enable winter growth, and retard summer growth, as compared to a creek, the water source (tributary system) of which is more exposed to the prevailing air temperatures. As a result, the aquatic insect larvae inhabiting a typical spring creek, particularly those in close proximity to its source, would be expected to experience a somewhat more level growth rate.
So, let’s assume your target Rhyacophila species happens to be in close proximity to where the spring emerges from the ground, which will minimize the skewing impact of degree days on our exercise. We will also assume a female of this species reach a maximum body length of 15 mm as a 5th instar larva in this particular environment. Let’s further assume that its female parent pupated on April 15, emerged on May 15, and oviposited on Jun 10.
So, it would theoretically have from mid-June to mid-April to reach larval maturity. That would be ~43 weeks. Let us further assume the 1st instar larva has an initial body length of 1 mm, and that at the end of each week, it will have added another 6.67% to its previous week’s body length. Of course, this is simplistic, as the body length for the duration each of the (5) instars is largely restricted by the larva’s external skeleton. However, it does provide a rough approximation for aggregate growth at a specific point in time. So, based on the above described growth schedule, by November 5, after 21 weeks of growth, it would have achieved a body length of 3.87 mm. This would likely translate to hook size #24, as opposed to hook size #18.
Okay guys, I’ve laid out my thought process on this. Does anyone care to point out what they consider to be significant problems with my assumptions, analyses, or conclusion?