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3. Trout response to rising hot and dry years

I was recently on another forum, and a guy on there was estimating that the summer where he is (somewhere in Central PA) has been so dry that half the brook trout population will die. I'm a little skeptical of that analysis, considering the summer where I am (also in Central PA) hasn't been much different from the other summers I've experienced here. I just can't imagine that the brookies that are still thriving after 150 years of human interference would be much affected by a particularly dry summer.

I'm hoping some experts might weigh in on this. Especially in light of possibly irreversible global warming in which years like this would be quite common (or, if the direst prognostications are to be believed, on the cool side of normal), how badly does a hot, dry summer influence trout populations? Obviously it would depend quite a lot on the nature of specific streams, but can any generalizations be made from hot summers we've experienced in the past?

-Shawn

P.S. I'm not trying to resurrect a contentious discussion on whether global warming is occurring, but what might we expect in the coming decades if it is?

I've heard that brookies are very adept at surviving in low water conditions, that they will even burrow down under rocks etc. and find water in which to survive. I don't know this as a fact, but it wouldn't surprise me. Gonzo would know; I don't know if he's around or not though.

A friend of mine recently told me of his summer job with a fisheries agency in the Adirondacks. He told me that he had read through a study that showed the trout in the Indian River would actually migrate out of the river into tributaries when the water got too high or low. These fish were radio tagged and they were able to track them to their refuges. He was telling me about 75% of the radio tagged fish would leave the stream during dam releases and in the summer drought.